Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.575365 20.145641 21.872117 23.927877 26.331643 29.082484 32.512226
2024-10-06 16.121700 18.166952 20.573459 23.671760 27.646509 32.715684 39.930015
2024-10-13 14.449085 16.752444 19.606680 23.520344 28.957840 36.627651 49.135950
2024-10-20 13.065091 15.467065 18.560953 23.016905 29.627710 39.819450 58.800822
2024-10-27 12.448430 15.057553 18.557707 23.876709 32.386163 47.027405 79.805482
2024-11-03 11.623454 14.265240 17.909358 23.662031 33.396454 51.680149 100.047880
2024-11-10 11.007523 13.688087 17.481411 23.688438 34.786065 57.631677 131.384671
2024-11-17 10.516593 13.234232 17.171127 23.834145 36.405535 64.886398 182.246541
2024-11-24 10.083410 12.821650 16.871164 23.936859 37.957557 72.925930 267.018667
2024-12-01 9.638555 12.355045 16.437766 23.736647 38.834613 79.806706 395.737844
2024-12-08 9.290104 12.005034 16.152618 23.755513 40.192226 89.272053 715.362123
2024-12-15 8.932090 11.615741 15.768747 23.536131 40.951917 97.520562 1523.368131
2024-12-22 8.593595 11.241857 15.390059 23.298537 41.674272 106.817351 7518.134807
2024-12-29 8.292431 10.908842 15.054737 23.106450 42.487462 117.844348 NaN
2025-01-05 8.029488 10.620861 14.773872 22.989259 43.489703 131.671095 NaN
2025-01-12 7.730298 10.260433 14.344509 22.519346 43.405069 139.783466 NaN
2025-01-19 7.658304 10.256449 14.529845 23.356056 47.412079 184.813713 NaN
2025-01-26 7.436080 9.998591 14.248947 23.153629 48.172997 208.168905 NaN
2025-02-02 7.262236 9.810989 14.080975 23.181482 49.727165 247.595775 NaN
2025-02-09 7.115411 9.660424 13.969423 23.323263 51.757242 308.368201 NaN
2025-02-16 6.972215 9.509028 13.846039 23.422994 53.708979 391.645796 NaN
2025-02-23 6.800927 9.303541 13.610024 23.230326 54.499295 467.765339 NaN
2025-03-02 6.665522 9.152739 13.467682 23.248720 56.184987 617.786515 NaN